Pucks & Cups: Week 1 Edition

So Week 1 of college football is in the books. We had a slew of upsets, but nothing that we really didn’t see coming from the major games of the weekend. There were some scares, though. Now, we get to the meat of the season. The NFL opens this Thursday, which means it’s time to make the annual playoff picks. First, let’s take a look at the NCAA rankings:

JRS Today Week 1 Rankings

1.       (1) (1-0) Oklahoma – A solid beatdown of Tulsa, the Sooners looked like the best team in the nation on Saturday

2.       (2) (1-0) Alabama – Dispatched Kent State with ease.

3.       (7) (1-0) LSU – Was anyone else surprised at the ease at which LSU disposed of Oregon?

4.       (4) (1-0) Boise State - Can anybody legitimately argue that that the Broncos don’t belong in a BCS game if they run the table?

5.       (6) (1-0) Stanford – With all due respect to RGIII, if Andrew Luck doesn’t get injured, he will win the Heisman.

6.       (5) (1-0) Florida State – Shut out ULM. Date with Oklahoma looming.

7.       (7) (1-0) Wisconsin – In the most impressive performance of the week, the Badgers establish themselves as the team to beat in the Big X.

8.       (10) (1-0) Texas A&M – ESPN collectively shudders at the Aggies dismantling of SMU

9.       (11) (1-0) Oklahoma State – Should they be worried that they gave up 34 points to Louisiana Lafayette?  

10.   (12) (1-0) Nebraska – The new offense shows life in cupcake tune-up

11.   (3) (0-1) Oregon – In its past two games against SEC opponents, Oregon has not managed a run of longer than 14-yards.

12.   (9) (1-0) South Carolina – If Spurrier wants to win, he has to play Stephen Garcia

13.   (13) (1-0) Virginia Tech – They won. Not impressive, but a win nonetheless

14.   (14) (1-0) Arkansas – Maybe losing Kniles Davis isn’t as serious as initially thought

15.   (15) (1-0) Michigan State – An unimpressive win, but it’s too early to drop them from this spot

16.   (16) (1-0) Mississippi State – It’s always funny when the best team in a given state gets less exposure than worst one.

17.   (18) (1-0) Florida – Another SEC team that just didn’t win very impressively

18.   (UR) (1-0) South Florida – You could organize teams 15-25 in any order and I doubt you would get much argument

19.    (25) (1-0) Penn State -  Joe Paterno is going to eventually be wheeled onto the field with his head in  a liquid solution, ala Futurama. The man won’t die

20.   (21) (1-0) West Virginia – It doesn’t matter how much WV scores, I always get bored watching their games.

21.   (19) (1-0) Ohio State – There is really no reason for them to drop right now, other than the fact that I don’t believe they are that good.

22.   (UR) (1-0) Baylor – Baylor beat a ranked team that shouldn’t have been ranked!! BCS bowl bound?

23.   (23) (1-0) Arizona State – Bleh

24.   (24) (1-0) Auburn – Having them ranked makes no sense; see team #15

25.   (19) (1-0) Missouri – Talk about a team decimated by injuries. SI isn’t looking too smart right now.

 Teams nearly making the cut: BYU, Utah, Iowa, USC, Houston

à Huzzah!!! Now it’s time for Pucks & Cups Annual Playoff Picks!!!  ß

Disclaimer: Let it be known, as most of you know, that I do not look at Quinn’s picks until after my own. We have never made the same picks in a given season.

Pucks ANNUAL PLAYOFF PICKS

***AFC***

Division Winners

East: 1. New England

North: 3. Pittsburgh

South: 4. Indianapolis

West: 2. San Diego

Wild Card: 5. Baltimore, 6. Kansas City

Wild Card Round

Pittsburgh d. Kansas City

Baltimore d. Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Baltimore d. New England

Pittsburgh d. San Diego

AFC Championship

Baltimore d. Pittsburgh

***NFC***

Division Winners

East: 2. Philadelphia

North: 3. Green Bay

South: 1. Atlanta

West: 4. Arizona

Wild Card: 6. Dallas Cowboys, 5. New Orleans Saints

Wild Card

Green Bay d. Dallas

New Orleans d. Arizona

Divisional Round

Atlanta d. New Orleans

Green Bay d. Philadelphia

Conference Championship

Green Bay d. Atlanta

**Super Bowl**

Green Bay d. Baltimore

Cups ANNUAL PLAYOFF PICKS

AFC South - Texans (2)

AFC North - Ravens

AFC West - Chargers (1)

AFC East - Jets

Wild Cards - Patriots, Broncos

NFC South - Falcons (1)

NFC North - Packers (2)

NFC West - Cardinals

NFC East - Eagles

Wild Cards: Cowboys, Saints

Playoffs

WC

Eagles d. Cowboys

Saints d. Cardinals

Ravens d. Broncos

Patriots d. Jets

2nd

Falcons d. Saints

Packers d. Eagles

Chargers d. Patriots

Ravens d. Texans

Champ

Packers d. Falcons

Ravens d. Chargers

Super Bowl

Packers d. Ravens

So, as you can see, Quinn and I have predicted the same ending to the season for the first time in our gloriously football savvy lives. Now, let’s get to the gravy. Time for some Week 1 Picks.

*New Orleans Saints (0-0) @ Green bay Packers (0-0)

Pucks: New Orleans has a history of struggling on Thursdays. Couple that with the fact that my entire fantasy team is involved in this game and you have a recipe for disaster

Pick: Green Bay 23-14

Cups: The defending Super Bowl champ is undefeated in the new opening season Thursday night game that they started about 6 years ago, and don't look for that to change is year. Rodgers is on fire as the Saints can't slow down the Packers passing attack.

Pick: Green Bay 38-27

*Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

Pucks: You don’t think that the Ravens are looking to right some of the wrongs in the world of the Rapist?

Pick: Baltimore 27-24

Cups: The Ravens pull out the win at home as these two teams continues one of the best rivalries in football. Ray Rice breaks free on a couple runs.

Pick: Baltimore 24-17

*Atlanta Falcons (0-0) @ Chicago Bears (0-0)

Pucks: I’ll tune into this one just to see Jay Cutler get booed each time he takes a snap.

Pick: Atlanta 38-16

Cups: A close game between two playoff teams, as the Falcons struggle to get their new high power offense going. Michael Turner rushes for 100+ and carries them to victory on his fat butt.

Pick: Atlanta 27-23

*Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) @ Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Pucks: We finally get to see what would have happened if Andy Dalton played against Colt McCoy.

Pick: Cleveland 21-6

Cups: Never, ever bet on a redheaded rookie quarterback on the road to win his first NFL start. 

Pick: Cleveland 24-16

*Indianapolis Colts (0-0) @ Houston Texans (0-0)

Pucks: My prophecy to Derek turned out to be money. Plus, why do these teams open with each other every single year?

Pick: Houston 31-14

Cups: If Houston doesn't make the playoffs this year, they should shut down the franchise.

Pick: Houston 35-0

*Tennessee Titans (0-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

Pucks: The David Garrard era is over. Now the era of upper mediocrity can shift into the era of below average mediocrity

Pick: Tennessee 14-10

Cups: This game will be pretty boring too.

Pick: Tennessee 18-17

*Buffalo Bills (0-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

Pucks: Ralph Wilson is going to die before Buffalo has another winning season

Pick: Kansas City 28-7

Cups: Quinn's Don't Watch Game of the Week!

Pick: Kansas City 24-10

*Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) @ St. Louis Rams (0-0)

Pucks: Uh oh, Quinn and I both picked this as our Upset of the Week. That means it is going to happen…unless Baylor sues to prevent it from happening.

Pick: St. Louis 38-34

Cups: Upset Special as Spags knows the Eagles from his days as the Giants D coordinator, and Bradford throws for 4 TDs and avoids the Sophomore slump.

Pick: St. Louis 28-23

*Detroit Lions (0-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

Pucks: I really want to pick Tampa here, but just can’t bring myself to do it.

Pick: Detroit 31-24

Cups: I'm buying the Lions hype

Pick: Detroit 31-27

*Carolina Panthers (0-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

Pucks: I think Carolina has a legit chance to not win a single game this year. I also think that Arizona is going to surprise a lot of people.

Pick: Arizona 35-9

Cups: Cam Newton struggles and throws 2 picks, while Fitz goes off for 150yds and 2 TD now that he has a compentant QB again.

Pick: Arizona 27-6

*Minnesota Vikings (0-0) @ San Diego Chargers (0-0)

Pucks: Adrian Peterson breaks his own NFL record by rushing for 700 yards. Minnesota still manages to lose.

Pick: San Diego 45-31

Cups: I don't think that McNabb has much of anything left in the tank, and I think it shows as SD gets off to a good start for the first time in years.

Pick: San Diego 35-14

*Seattle Seahawks (0-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

Pucks: The game of the week I don’t care about.

Pick: San Francisco 17-10

Cups: Seattle has a much improved run game, while SF struggles in the debut of Harbaugh because their quarterback is still Alex Smith.

Pick: Seattle 23-20

*New York Giants (0-0) @ Washington Redskins (0-0)

Pucks: I know I should expect the Giants to win, but I can’t imagine Eli not screwing up the 9/11 game for his team.

Pick: Washington Redskins 17-13

Cups: I can't really get a feel for the game, but since Sexy Rexy is involved, I'm going against him.

Pick: New York Giants 24-16

*Dallas Cowboys (0-0) @ New York Jets (0-0)

Pucks: I just realized that I don’t have a Joshism for this week…Dallas just has too many questions to be confident in that defense.

Pick: Dallas 20-10

Cups: GAME OF THE WEEK: The Cowboys offense gets off to a fast start, and the defense plays well enough to stop the Jets run game, forcing Sanchez to throw the ball 25+ times. This leads to stalled drives, and the Cowboys hold on in the 4th quarter.

Pick: Dallas 27-24

*New England Patriots (0-0) @ Miami Dolphins (0-0)

Pucks: Miami has historically given NE trouble. Key word in that sentence is “historically”.

Pick: New England 38-14

Cups: New England is clicking on all cylinders, as they go down to Miami and embarrass the Dolphins.

Pick: New England 35-17

*Oakland Raiders0 (0-0) @ Denver Broncos (0-0)

Pucks: Oakland became the first team sweep their division and still fire their head coach. Don’t expect much to change.

Pick: Oakland 19-7

Cups: Run DMC scores 5 touchdowns as I kill Big Daddy in Fantasy Football.

Pick: Oakland 38-21

Until next week . . .

Pucks & Cups: Preseason Edition

Well, it’s that time of year where everyone sets trivial things like family, school, and monetary compensation aside for football. I will be the first to admit my somewhat tempered enthusiasm for this upcoming season. The NFL lockout has definitely put a damper on my spirits and the whole mess in the Big XII has been utterly distracting in the realm of college football; however, this week, we can set that all aside.

For starters, I’m going to try something new this year. I’m going to try some preseason college rankings. These are not like my NFL rankings, mainly because predicting preseason college football is like predicting what you’re going to catch while noodling in Mississippi. 

JRS Today Preseason Poll

1.       Oklahoma – The Sooners have a relatively straightforward path to march to the NC. That doesn’t mean they will make it there.

2.       Alabama – New blood in Tuscaloosa this season

3.       Oregon – That date with LSU got a little more interesting

4.       Boise State – Kellen Moore could be the first non-AQ player to hoist the Heisman

5.       Florida State – I don’t think that Seminole country will remain here for very long

6.       Stanford – Andrew Luck = Best college quarterback of my lifetime

7.       LSU – You can never discount Les Miles’ team, even with the distractions that are floating around Baton Rouge

8.       Wisconsin – The land of the lineman

9.       South Carolina – Steve Spurrier has officially brought this team to relevance. Something I did not think would happen

10.   Texas A&M – Can they drown out all the SEC noise that is surrounding them?

11.   Oklahoma State – The most under-appreciated team in the Big XII-II

12.   Nebraska – Not sold on them this season; playing in the Big X+II should help

13.   Virginia Tech – Can they avoid the early season woes that plagued them last season?

14.   Arkansas – This might be a little high with no Kniles Davis

15.   Michigan State – Kirk Cousins and Edwin Baker bring a strong backfield and dark horse into the Big X+II

16.   Mississippi State – A rising program that never gets any love

17.   TCU – Does anyone else see an upset coming against Baylor?

18.   Missouri – The dark horse to usurp the three Big XII-II favorites.

19.   Ohio State – I’m doing this one more out of lack of competition than I am on the grounds that this team is any good

20.   Florida – I expect a nice rebound in a weak SEC East

21.   West Virginia – You think the Mountaineers wouldn’t like to have a good season to increase their SEC chances?

22.   Georgia – They aren’t beating Boise State.

23.   Arizona State – The drop off in competition from the upper tier PAC to the lower tier PAC is becoming pronounced

24.   Auburn – No illegally recruited Cam Newton to lead his team to glory

25.   Penn State – Joe Paterno will not live to see the end of the season (if he keeps standing on the sidelines)

Teams nearly making the cut: USC, Utah, Iowa

Ok, now we move into the 2010 NFL predictions area. Let’s see how 2010 went in the realm of predictability.

Prediction: The Giants are overrated and will miss the playoffs for the 2^nd consecutive year.

Result: For the 2^nd year in a row, the Giants had a late season meltdown enroute to missing the playoffs.

Why: Nothing about Eli Manning impresses me. Twenty-six interceptions will do that. Still, the Giants were in good shape to win the NFC East until the Meadowlands Miracle. This loss to Philadelphia allowed the Packers to make the playoffs.

Conclusion: Correct

Prediction: Alex Smith is the man in San Francisco

Result: Smith started only ten games for the 49ers, throwing 14 TD’s to 10 INT’s.

Why: While Smith has been better than most thought after his first few years, I expected last year to be a breakout season for him. It never panned out, as inconsistency and injury led to a mediocre season and the firing of coach Mike Singletary.

Conclusion: Fail

Prediction: Chris Johnson will not lead the league in rushing

Result: A broad prediction, Johnson finished 4^th in the NFL in rushing with 1,361 rushing yards, which is still a very good number.

Why: Easy. He just simply couldn’t duplicate the previous season’s success. A quick review of 2,000 yards rusher’s show that there is an inevitable drop off the next season.

Conclusion: Correct

Prediction: The NFC Playoff teams will be Dallas, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco, Carolina, and New Orleans, with Carolina and New Orleans being the Wild Card teams. The AFC Playoff teams will be New England, Miami, Indianapolis, San Diego, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Baltimore Ravens, with Pittsburgh and Miami being the Wild Card teams.

Result: Atlanta, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Green Bay, Chicago, and Seattle made it out of the NFC. 4-of-6 isn’t terrible, but I really take a hit for predicting Carolina, who wound up being the worst team in football. Kansas City, Baltimore, NY Jets, Indianapolis, New England, and Pittsburgh all made it out of the AFC. Again, 4-of-6 isn’t bad.

Why: Dallas had a meltdown and Carolina was just horrible. Matt Moore did not pan out like I thought. Chad Henne did not play like I thought he would and San Diego did not have enough gas to sneak in late in the year.

Conclusion: Wash

Prediction: The Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl

Result: After losing star running back Ryan Grant and stud tight end Jermichael Finley to season ending injuries, the Packers rebounded to sneak into the playoffs. Once there, there was little doubt as to the outcome.

Why: Aaron Rogers was improving every season. Coupled with a great receiving corps, an uncoverable tight end, a decent running game, and a hell bent defense, Green Bay was by no means an underdog this season.

Conclusion: Prophet

Prediction: The NFC South is the best division in football

Result: Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all had at least ten wins

Why: You knew that Atlanta and New Orleans would do their thing, but I though Carolina would be the surprise team, not Tampa Bay. Regardless, the prediction panned out.
Conclusion: Correct

**2011 NFL Predictions

Prediction: Kevin Kolb will outshine Michael Vick and the Eagles will forever rue the day they traded him away.

Why: I have made a lot of Vick’s turnovers. He fumbled 16 times in eleven games last year, an unbelievable number. Couple that with the fact that I don’t believe he can win a Super Bowl. Kolb, on the other hand, has had a great preseason and we all know he has tremendous accuracy and arm strength. In Arizona, I believe Kolb will do better than Vick in Philly.

Prediction: Matthew Stafford will stay healthy this year.

Why: I don’t know. Call it a hunch.

Prediction: Mark Ingram will win NFC rookie of the year.

Why: When Ingram was at Alabama, I was not his biggest fan. Short and slower than most NFL running backs, Ingram had to rely on his leg strength and vision to succeed. I thought about this, and then realized that was the exact same thing people said about another #22 years ago.

Prediction: The Carolina Panthers will be the worst team in the NFL again. They will draft a QB for the 3^rd year in a row.

Why: I wrote a long article on the idiocy of Carolina drafting a quarterback. They might win two games this year, then they will be ripe for the picking to draft Andrew Luck.

**Stay tuned for playoff predictions early next week.

2011 FF Fantasy Football Preview

This is something new. I feel that it’s pointless to rank the teams before we know anything about what is going to happen this season. Thus, I will give a quick overview of each team, who I think will be a stud, a dud, and a sleeper to watch out for, for each team. Enjoy.

*Chuck Norris – Derek West

Preview: With Peyton Manning at the helm, Derek has assembled a team with two stud receivers (Jackson, Ward) and what should be a steady running game in Bradshaw and Turner.

Stud: Don’t expect a tumultuous offseason to slow down DeSean Jackson. Being the annual NFL player I met this offseason, I can only have a positive effect on the young man.

Dud: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m going with Peyton Manning. One of the steadiest contributors for years, Manning has had a brutal offseason with his nagging neck injury. Whether or not he will be available for the opener remains to be seen. Due to his stunning production, I expect a drop off that still makes him a very viable option at quarterback.

Sleeper: Plaxico Burress. Mainly because he has been out of the game over the last few years.

*Bester Reader – Drew Scoggins

Preview: With an interesting look to his team, I expect Drew to have a mediocre season, possibly slipping into a lower seeded playoff spot.

Stud: Drew has the best running back in Adrian Peterson. Peterson’s production year in and year out has made him the most sought after running back in our fantasy draft for the last three years.

Dud: With 26 INT’s last year, Eli Manning is one of those quarterbacks who can decimate his own team if given the chance.

Sleeper: Flying under the radar has been A.J. Green. Green will have rookie Andy Dalton throwing to him, which may or may not have a negative effect on his stats. It remains to be seen. I expect them to be a popular tandem for years to come.

*Mike Vick/Tim Tebow/Fake Michael – Michael Cartwright

Preview: The team that Michael didn’t draft is going to bomb. Besides Johnson, Lloyd, and Gonzalez, his team is like an empty soul.

Stud: No doubt about Andre Johnson. He has the potential to carry this team to enough victories to possibly sneak into the postseason if all his opponents players are on IR.

Dud: It’s obvious isn’t it? Michael Vick just cannot stay healthy. When he is healthy, he is either making spectacular plays or turning the ball over at a furious rate; to the tune of 124 times in 6 years as a starter.

Sleeper: Ryan Grant missed all of 2010 with a knee injury. There is no guarantee that he will be able to return to his 1,000 yard form, especially with James Starks nipping at his heels.

*Harbingers of Doom – Baby Face Nelson (Castello)

Preview: Any team with Tom Brady would require an absolute meltdown to not make the playoffs

Stud: We all know what Tom Brady can do, but when healthy, there are few athletes in the game that can compare to Jermichael Finley. Expect an insane year out of Finley.

Dud: David Buehler. Did someone tell Castello that there is a good chance that this guy doesn’t even make the team?

Sleeper: Michael Crabtree. I still think the Crabs is due to break out. It might help if he had a quarterback.

*Team Chapstick – Coleman Meadows

Preview: A stout team that is already hurting from injuries; however, with a good deal of roster depth, Coleman should be able to walk out of this situation with a playoff spot. As Coleman told me about Arian Foster, "As long as he's ready for the playoffs, I don't care." Now, that's confidence.

Stud: Larry Fitzgerald. Anyone who thinks Kevin Kolb can’t play need only watch his rapport with Fitz over the past few weeks. I expect Fitzgerald to have the best season of his career.

Dud: Jahvid Best. If there is anything we have learned in fantasy football, it is to stay away from Oakland quarterbacks, Cowboy kickers, and anybody who plays for Detroit not named Calvin Johnson.

Sleeper: As mentioned earlier, Kevin Kolb is going to tear it up this season. Don’t be surprised to find Tony Romo on the bench halfway through the season.

*Gingerballers – Stephen Haltom

Preview: Loaded at every position, if I had to pick a favorite, this would be my pick. There just isn’t a weakness on this team.

Stud: LeGarrette Blount. After doing well in his rookie season in Tampa Bay, I only expect Blount to up his production this year.

Dud: Um, it’s hard to find one. If I had to choose I’d go with Detroit Lions defense, but they will never see the field.

Sleeper: Greg Olsen. On a team loaded with stars, not many players are going to sneak up on anyone. If I had to choose, I would say Olsen in a new atmosphere with a new team. Unfortunately, he has Cam Newton not throwing him accurate passes.

*Big Daddy – A-ron Stallard

Preview: Last years’ champion returns another good team. With his lineup, a repeat is possible.

Stud: Calvin Johnson. If Matt Stafford could ever stay healthy, then this could be a potent combination

Dud: Roy Williams. Yeah, he probably won’t see any playing time, anyway.

Sleeper: Fred Jackson. Because he plays in Buffalo, Fred Jackson just might be the best running back that you’ve never heard of. He basically made my man C.J. Spiller invisible last season.

*Bear Hyde’s – Big Jeff

Preview: A solid team, a few lucky bounces could put Big J in competition for the FF Title, which is far more sought after than the Big XII-II trophy.

Stud: Baltimore Ravens. Aren’t all these guys like fifty years old? Kudos to a linebacking corps I would love to watch invade a South American country during the cover of night.

Dud: BenJarvus Green-Ellis. As they say in South Park, never trust a man with a hyphenated last name.

Sleeper: Derrick Mason. I pitched hard for the Cowboys to sign Mason after he was released by the Ravens. A popular 3^rd down target and red zone threat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have another 1000 yard season.

*Kerrdogs – Coach Kerr

Preview: Kerr will be delivering his own brand of Justice to the league with Aaron Rogers at the helm.

Stud: Aaron Rogers is the best player in the NFL until proven otherwise

Dud: Julio Jones. A big, fast target, Jones can’t seem to hold onto a ball more than ten yards down the field, which eliminates his speed.

Sleeper: Steve Breaston. Breaston is on a new team with a rising quarterback. It is possible for him to be a very reliable third receiver on this team.

*Oh Napoleon! – Trey

Preview: A solid lineup with no glaring weaknesses in its starters, Trey’s team might be able challenge for the top spot if a certain anti-American running back can stop fumbling.

Stud: Kenny Britt. It didn’t seem to matter who was playing quarterback in Tennessee, before being injured, Kenny Britt was tearing the NFL to pieces. I expect him to regain his early 2010 form this season

Dud: New York Giants. A defense that has struggled with giving up points and, surprisingly, putting pressure on the quarterback will be torn apart by the NFC East this season.

Sleeper: Sam Bradford. Remember when everyone thought Bradford would not do well because of running the spread in college? Yeah, nobody thinks that any more. With a solid you group, Bradford should put up solid stats this year.

*Toiletpucks – Alexander the Great

Preview: As usual, Josh puts all his eggs in one basket with the New Orleans Saints and an extraordinarily deep wide receiver corps.

Stud: Green Bay. Josh has drafted Green Bay’s defense for the last three years. Last year, it scored more than his running backs Knowshon Moreno, CJ Spiller, and Ryan Grant, combined, and should maintain an astronomical point status among defenses

Dud: Alex Henery. A true gamble, Henery was the greatest college kicker in the history of ever, but inconsistency at the next level might find him without a job midway through the season.

Sleeper: Mark Ingram. Ingram was supposed to see limited playing time this year, but with a fantastic preseason, Ingram has worked his way into the starter’s role and should get a majority of the goal line carries.

*Mybluecup - Quinn

Preview: Quinn’s team is one giant gamble in what could be called “The All-Injury Team”, with five of his players missing significant time last season.

Stud: Dez Bryant. If Bryant can stay healthy, he could easily become the most dominant weapon on an already loaded Dallas offense.

Dud: Josh Freeman. Freeman is steadily improving, but probably should not be a starting fantasy quarterback. Luckily for Quinn, he has. . .

Sleeper: Matthew Stafford. Stafford is one of those great quarterbacks who appears to be able to put up stats, but still lose, somewhat like Dan “Anti-Clutch” Marino. If he can stay healthy, Stafford could be just what Detroit needs to return from the mire.

Everything else will be put in Tuesday’s follow up.

Why Carolina Should Not Take Another Quarterback

So yeah, I’ve decided to come out of retirement, if not just for one article. I’ve received tons of questions from friends and family over the past several weeks about the NFL Draft, so I just figured I should take a deeper look at what is about to go down, while still doing my customary name dropping and fact overload. Before you read any further, if you are expecting some crappy Mel Kiper-esque mock draft, then you’re out of luck. In fact, I’m going to focus most of this article on the first pick in the draft, which is owned by the Carolina Panthers. So sit back, relax, and enjoy an in-depth look at why those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Also, I do a lot of comparing to the Cowboys in these types of articles to make certain points or examples, so please try and refrain from calling me a homer.

Sources in the Great South are reporting that Carolina is taking a serious look at taking Cam Newton as THE number one pick in the draft. Umm, seriously? Yes, seriously. We will get to Carolina’s incompetency later, but for now, let’s take a look at the draft as a whole. If I were to ask you who is the best football player available in the draft, LSU’s Patrick Peterson would be at the top of the list. I suspect that even Mel Kiper and Todd McShay know this (not guaranteed). There are some projections that have him falling as far as 7^th in the draft. If so, I strongly urge Jerry Jones to see what it would take to move up two spots and take him. Doubt it would occur, but it never hurts to ask. So, why on earth would the best player in the draft fall to 7^th? 

Two words: hype and impatience.

For now, let’s review impatience. Best practice example: Carolina Panthers. If you go 2-14, you have a lot of room to improve, correct? So it’s safe to say that you could use the first overall draft pick on more than one position to fill a quality need, correct? Here’s what I’m getting to. Using this logic, there is absolutely NO REASON OF ANYKIND for Carolina to take a quarterback as the first pick. Zero. None. Nada. It makes no sense whatsoever.

So now, let’s make the argument. Let’s just say Carolina goes with another quarterback. This would make it their 3^rd quarterback in two years. That in itself is astounding. Even more intriguing, let’s say they take Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. What does this say about Jimmy Clausen? Have the Panthers given up on him? Matt Moore may never be a legitimate starter in this league, but he can make one heck of a backup. Remember, Carolina took Clausen 48^th overall in the 2010 draft. His stats were unimpressive as a rookie (3 TD’s, 9 INTs, 58.4 rating, 13 games). In fact, they were downright putrid, but does that warrant drafting another quarterback?

Surprisingly, many sports analysts are saying yes. To which I say, “You are stoopid.” (Did I mention that I picked Carolina to make the playoffs before the season?) This is the NFL and, in recent times, the NFL has become a win-now-what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league. (I also picked Green Bay to win the Super Bowl, so that helps me regain the credibility I lost a sentence ago) I’m a Cowboys fan so let’s throw it in those terms. What if Dallas handed Tony Romo to the wolves in his rookie year? Even this is an unfair comparison, as Romo would have had some semblance of an offensive line, or at least one that could allow Drew Bledsoe to throw the ball. A better example is Troy Aikman. In his rookie year, Aikman threw for 9 TD’s and 18 INT’s in 11 games, earning him a glorious 55.7 rating, which is worse than Clausen’s. What if Dallas just decided, “Oh, time to move on from that failed experiment.” But Josh, Aikman picked up his play as years went on!! Oh really? In his 2^nd full season, Troy threw 11 TD’s and 18 INT’s, with only a 66.8 rating; this time playing in 15 games. Wait, I’m not done. You want to get repetitive? Try his 3^rd season, where he threw 10 TD’s and 11 INT’s. I could do this all day. One more thing football fans, Troy Aikman only had TWO seasons of is career with a passer rating of over 90.0. It took him four years before he threw more TD’s than INT’s. (Now I’ve pissed off the Cowboys contingent)

With that being said, Aikman had something that Jimmy Clausen doesn’t. Namely, a supporting cast (or the best offensive line in the history of ever). Don’t get me wrong, Carolina is stacked at running back; but after that, things get dicey. For the sake of my argument, when Richard Marshall, Captain Munnerlyn, and Chris Gamble are your top three cornerbacks, you have room to improve. Enough so that it should not be out of the question to take a very large, speedy, and physical cornerback; which is one of those positions that doesn’t require an overly large brain to play. Carolina’s pass defense finished a respectable 11^th in the league, but that’s not the point. The point is, with this much room to improve, you improve with the best available player.

Cam Newton is not that. Blaine Gabbert is not that. 

Carolina was upset when Stanford’s Andrew Luck decided to stay for his junior year. It would be a setback for them to try and draft another quarterback now. You know why? For one, I promise you that Cam Newton’s rookie season is going to be an utter disaster. (The same way I promised you that LaDainian Tomlinson would fail in the NFL. That’s my shout out to what Coleman is thinking) Regardless of what his career becomes, Carolina does not have the talent to cradle him like Baltimore did with Joe Flacco or Atlanta with Matt Ryan. They just can’t do it. Not to mention that he will have more of a curve learning an NFL offense than either Flacco or Ryan.

So then what? You’ve signed Newton to this monster deal, his rookie year is a “failure” and you are picking number one again in 2012. Well, now Andrew Luck is available. What do you do now? Assuming he stays healthy, Luck will be next year’s first pick, without a doubt. Do you see where this is going? Carolina has the chance to become the new Detroit by picking the same position each year because of “talent”. Can Carolina continue this trend? Being big, fast, physical, and tough to tackle doesn’t make you a good NFL quarterback, or player for that matter. Ask Bam Morris or Vince Young. Ask Robert Gallery or Charles Rogers. Heck, ask Randall Williams and his 4.06 40-yard dash. At some point, you have to attempt to develop your quarterback. Very few players can be thrown into a rookie campaign and come out unscathed. Peyton Manning, the aforementioned Aikman, John Elway, Drew Brees (San Diego), and Bernie Kosar are among the notable early year “failures” who went on to have successful careers.

Now take a look at the other side. What happens if you develop a quarterback? How long depends on the player. It took Tom Brady and Michael Vick one season before they hit the field; others like Aaron Rogers (three), Brett Favre (two), and Steve Young (six) took multiple seasons to become legitimate NFL quarterbacks. Two of those guys weren’t even drafted by the teams they became famous with. Therefore, I say that if Carolina drafts another quarterback in 2011 as the first overall pick, they are dooming themselves and any potential progress that can be made by, not just Clausen, but by Matt Moore and Tony Pike as well.

The second item I mentioned, hype, is far more dangerous and costly than impatience and, when coupled together, like in what Carolina might do in this draft, it can become the melting pot for a 0-16 season, or disaster, whichever way you like to think about it. Look at the broad expanse of the draft. Pittsburgh has been excellent over the years finding talent. You know they are sitting there at the end of the first round thinking, “we are going to get the twenty-first best player in this draft because some idiot is gonna take Tim Tebow.” 

You know what? It’s true.

Hype caused Detroit to draft all those receivers; it caused Tennessee to draft the disaster that is Vince Young; San Diego took Ryan Leaf for his strong arm; Chicago bombed with drug addict Rashaam Salaam; the Steelers are having their own problems with fumble happy Rashard “The Anti-Clutch” Mendenhall; Green Bay passed up on Barry Sanders to take Tony Mandarich (heralded as the greatest offensive line prospect of all time); the horrid combination of hype and impatience led Minnesota to commit “The Great Train Robbery” by giving Dallas seven draft picks for Herschel Walker, which Dallas used to draft Emmitt Smith, Darren Woodson, Alvin Harper, and (through trades) Russell Maryland; Oakland took JaMarcus Russell because of his strong arm, size, and athletic ability (sound familiar?). The list goes on and on, but GM’s and owners never really seem to learn from the past.

Right now, at least for the purpose of this article, the hype is Cam Newton (if you want to know who else I think is overrated, just ask. The answers might surprise you, or piss you off). The guy reeks of lying cheating, and just plain trouble. He maintains a holier than thou attitude that scouts continue to complain about; however, analysts, for some reason or another, are lifting him to the position as the second coming of Jesus. Granted, even the ‘tards over at ESPN agree that it will take a couple of years for Cam to progress into a true NFL quarterback, if ever. Therein lies the rub. I do not think that, if drafted by Carolina, Cam will get the time he needs to develop. Andrew Luck will be more NFL ready at year one than Cam at year two, but can Carolina take the risk? So, you see, we have come full circle. My advice to Carolina: draft Patrick Peterson. Draft Nick Fairley. Draft someone who isn’t a quarterback, even a much ballyhooed one. I promise you, it will make you better in the end.