So yeah, I’ve decided to come out of retirement, if not just for one article. I’ve received tons of questions from friends and family over the past several weeks about the NFL Draft, so I just figured I should take a deeper look at what is about to go down, while still doing my customary name dropping and fact overload. Before you read any further, if you are expecting some crappy Mel Kiper-esque mock draft, then you’re out of luck. In fact, I’m going to focus most of this article on the first pick in the draft, which is owned by the Carolina Panthers. So sit back, relax, and enjoy an in-depth look at why those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Also, I do a lot of comparing to the Cowboys in these types of articles to make certain points or examples, so please try and refrain from calling me a homer.
Sources in the Great South are reporting that Carolina is taking a serious look at taking Cam Newton as THE number one pick in the draft. Umm, seriously? Yes, seriously. We will get to Carolina’s incompetency later, but for now, let’s take a look at the draft as a whole. If I were to ask you who is the best football player available in the draft, LSU’s Patrick Peterson would be at the top of the list. I suspect that even Mel Kiper and Todd McShay know this (not guaranteed). There are some projections that have him falling as far as 7th in the draft. If so, I strongly urge Jerry Jones to see what it would take to move up two spots and take him. Doubt it would occur, but it never hurts to ask. So, why on earth would the best player in the draft fall to 7th?
Two words: hype and impatience.
For now, let’s review impatience. Best practice example: Carolina Panthers. If you go 2-14, you have a lot of room to improve, correct? So it’s safe to say that you could use the first overall draft pick on more than one position to fill a quality need, correct? Here’s what I’m getting to. Using this logic, there is absolutely NO REASON OF ANYKIND for Carolina to take a quarterback as the first pick. Zero. None. Nada. It makes no sense whatsoever.
So now, let’s make the argument. Let’s just say Carolina goes with another quarterback. This would make it their 3rd quarterback in two years. That in itself is astounding. Even more intriguing, let’s say they take Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. What does this say about Jimmy Clausen? Have the Panthers given up on him? Matt Moore may never be a legitimate starter in this league, but he can make one heck of a backup. Remember, Carolina took Clausen 48th overall in the 2010 draft. His stats were unimpressive as a rookie (3 TD’s, 9 INTs, 58.4 rating, 13 games). In fact, they were downright putrid, but does that warrant drafting another quarterback?
Surprisingly, many sports analysts are saying yes. To which I say, “You are stoopid.” (Did I mention that I picked Carolina to make the playoffs before the season?) This is the NFL and, in recent times, the NFL has become a win-now-what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league. (I also picked Green Bay to win the Super Bowl, so that helps me regain the credibility I lost a sentence ago) I’m a Cowboys fan so let’s throw it in those terms. What if Dallas handed Tony Romo to the wolves in his rookie year? Even this is an unfair comparison, as Romo would have had some semblance of an offensive line, or at least one that could allow Drew Bledsoe to throw the ball. A better example is Troy Aikman. In his rookie year, Aikman threw for 9 TD’s and 18 INT’s in 11 games, earning him a glorious 55.7 rating, which is worse than Clausen’s. What if Dallas just decided, “Oh, time to move on from that failed experiment.” But Josh, Aikman picked up his play as years went on!! Oh really? In his 2nd full season, Troy threw 11 TD’s and 18 INT’s, with only a 66.8 rating; this time playing in 15 games. Wait, I’m not done. You want to get repetitive? Try his 3rd season, where he threw 10 TD’s and 11 INT’s. I could do this all day. One more thing football fans, Troy Aikman only had TWO seasons of is career with a passer rating of over 90.0. It took him four years before he threw more TD’s than INT’s. (Now I’ve pissed off the Cowboys contingent)
With that being said, Aikman had something that Jimmy Clausen doesn’t. Namely, a supporting cast (or the best offensive line in the history of ever). Don’t get me wrong, Carolina is stacked at running back; but after that, things get dicey. For the sake of my argument, when Richard Marshall, Captain Munnerlyn, and Chris Gamble are your top three cornerbacks, you have room to improve. Enough so that it should not be out of the question to take a very large, speedy, and physical cornerback; which is one of those positions that doesn’t require an overly large brain to play. Carolina’s pass defense finished a respectable 11th in the league, but that’s not the point. The point is, with this much room to improve, you improve with the best available player.
Cam Newton is not that. Blaine Gabbert is not that.
Carolina was upset when Stanford’s Andrew Luck decided to stay for his junior year. It would be a setback for them to try and draft another quarterback now. You know why? For one, I promise you that Cam Newton’s rookie season is going to be an utter disaster. (The same way I promised you that LaDainian Tomlinson would fail in the NFL. That’s my shout out to what Coleman is thinking) Regardless of what his career becomes, Carolina does not have the talent to cradle him like Baltimore did with Joe Flacco or Atlanta with Matt Ryan. They just can’t do it. Not to mention that he will have more of a curve learning an NFL offense than either Flacco or Ryan.
So then what? You’ve signed Newton to this monster deal, his rookie year is a “failure” and you are picking number one again in 2012. Well, now Andrew Luck is available. What do you do now? Assuming he stays healthy, Luck will be next year’s first pick, without a doubt. Do you see where this is going? Carolina has the chance to become the new Detroit by picking the same position each year because of “talent”. Can Carolina continue this trend? Being big, fast, physical, and tough to tackle doesn’t make you a good NFL quarterback, or player for that matter. Ask Bam Morris or Vince Young. Ask Robert Gallery or Charles Rogers. Heck, ask Randall Williams and his 4.06 40-yard dash. At some point, you have to attempt to develop your quarterback. Very few players can be thrown into a rookie campaign and come out unscathed. Peyton Manning, the aforementioned Aikman, John Elway, Drew Brees (San Diego), and Bernie Kosar are among the notable early year “failures” who went on to have successful careers.
Now take a look at the other side. What happens if you develop a quarterback? How long depends on the player. It took Tom Brady and Michael Vick one season before they hit the field; others like Aaron Rogers (three), Brett Favre (two), and Steve Young (six) took multiple seasons to become legitimate NFL quarterbacks. Two of those guys weren’t even drafted by the teams they became famous with. Therefore, I say that if Carolina drafts another quarterback in 2011 as the first overall pick, they are dooming themselves and any potential progress that can be made by, not just Clausen, but by Matt Moore and Tony Pike as well.
The second item I mentioned, hype, is far more dangerous and costly than impatience and, when coupled together, like in what Carolina might do in this draft, it can become the melting pot for a 0-16 season, or disaster, whichever way you like to think about it. Look at the broad expanse of the draft. Pittsburgh has been excellent over the years finding talent. You know they are sitting there at the end of the first round thinking, “we are going to get the twenty-first best player in this draft because some idiot is gonna take Tim Tebow.”
You know what? It’s true.
Hype caused Detroit to draft all those receivers; it caused Tennessee to draft the disaster that is Vince Young; San Diego took Ryan Leaf for his strong arm; Chicago bombed with drug addict Rashaam Salaam; the Steelers are having their own problems with fumble happy Rashard “The Anti-Clutch” Mendenhall; Green Bay passed up on Barry Sanders to take Tony Mandarich (heralded as the greatest offensive line prospect of all time); the horrid combination of hype and impatience led Minnesota to commit “The Great Train Robbery” by giving Dallas seven draft picks for Herschel Walker, which Dallas used to draft Emmitt Smith, Darren Woodson, Alvin Harper, and (through trades) Russell Maryland; Oakland took JaMarcus Russell because of his strong arm, size, and athletic ability (sound familiar?). The list goes on and on, but GM’s and owners never really seem to learn from the past.
Right now, at least for the purpose of this article, the hype is Cam Newton (if you want to know who else I think is overrated, just ask. The answers might surprise you, or piss you off). The guy reeks of lying cheating, and just plain trouble. He maintains a holier than thou attitude that scouts continue to complain about; however, analysts, for some reason or another, are lifting him to the position as the second coming of Jesus. Granted, even the ‘tards over at ESPN agree that it will take a couple of years for Cam to progress into a true NFL quarterback, if ever. Therein lies the rub. I do not think that, if drafted by Carolina, Cam will get the time he needs to develop. Andrew Luck will be more NFL ready at year one than Cam at year two, but can Carolina take the risk? So, you see, we have come full circle. My advice to Carolina: draft Patrick Peterson. Draft Nick Fairley. Draft someone who isn’t a quarterback, even a much ballyhooed one. I promise you, it will make you better in the end.
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