Why Carolina Should Not Take Another Quarterback

So yeah, I’ve decided to come out of retirement, if not just for one article. I’ve received tons of questions from friends and family over the past several weeks about the NFL Draft, so I just figured I should take a deeper look at what is about to go down, while still doing my customary name dropping and fact overload. Before you read any further, if you are expecting some crappy Mel Kiper-esque mock draft, then you’re out of luck. In fact, I’m going to focus most of this article on the first pick in the draft, which is owned by the Carolina Panthers. So sit back, relax, and enjoy an in-depth look at why those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Also, I do a lot of comparing to the Cowboys in these types of articles to make certain points or examples, so please try and refrain from calling me a homer.

Sources in the Great South are reporting that Carolina is taking a serious look at taking Cam Newton as THE number one pick in the draft. Umm, seriously? Yes, seriously. We will get to Carolina’s incompetency later, but for now, let’s take a look at the draft as a whole. If I were to ask you who is the best football player available in the draft, LSU’s Patrick Peterson would be at the top of the list. I suspect that even Mel Kiper and Todd McShay know this (not guaranteed). There are some projections that have him falling as far as 7^th in the draft. If so, I strongly urge Jerry Jones to see what it would take to move up two spots and take him. Doubt it would occur, but it never hurts to ask. So, why on earth would the best player in the draft fall to 7^th? 

Two words: hype and impatience.

For now, let’s review impatience. Best practice example: Carolina Panthers. If you go 2-14, you have a lot of room to improve, correct? So it’s safe to say that you could use the first overall draft pick on more than one position to fill a quality need, correct? Here’s what I’m getting to. Using this logic, there is absolutely NO REASON OF ANYKIND for Carolina to take a quarterback as the first pick. Zero. None. Nada. It makes no sense whatsoever.

So now, let’s make the argument. Let’s just say Carolina goes with another quarterback. This would make it their 3^rd quarterback in two years. That in itself is astounding. Even more intriguing, let’s say they take Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. What does this say about Jimmy Clausen? Have the Panthers given up on him? Matt Moore may never be a legitimate starter in this league, but he can make one heck of a backup. Remember, Carolina took Clausen 48^th overall in the 2010 draft. His stats were unimpressive as a rookie (3 TD’s, 9 INTs, 58.4 rating, 13 games). In fact, they were downright putrid, but does that warrant drafting another quarterback?

Surprisingly, many sports analysts are saying yes. To which I say, “You are stoopid.” (Did I mention that I picked Carolina to make the playoffs before the season?) This is the NFL and, in recent times, the NFL has become a win-now-what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league. (I also picked Green Bay to win the Super Bowl, so that helps me regain the credibility I lost a sentence ago) I’m a Cowboys fan so let’s throw it in those terms. What if Dallas handed Tony Romo to the wolves in his rookie year? Even this is an unfair comparison, as Romo would have had some semblance of an offensive line, or at least one that could allow Drew Bledsoe to throw the ball. A better example is Troy Aikman. In his rookie year, Aikman threw for 9 TD’s and 18 INT’s in 11 games, earning him a glorious 55.7 rating, which is worse than Clausen’s. What if Dallas just decided, “Oh, time to move on from that failed experiment.” But Josh, Aikman picked up his play as years went on!! Oh really? In his 2^nd full season, Troy threw 11 TD’s and 18 INT’s, with only a 66.8 rating; this time playing in 15 games. Wait, I’m not done. You want to get repetitive? Try his 3^rd season, where he threw 10 TD’s and 11 INT’s. I could do this all day. One more thing football fans, Troy Aikman only had TWO seasons of is career with a passer rating of over 90.0. It took him four years before he threw more TD’s than INT’s. (Now I’ve pissed off the Cowboys contingent)

With that being said, Aikman had something that Jimmy Clausen doesn’t. Namely, a supporting cast (or the best offensive line in the history of ever). Don’t get me wrong, Carolina is stacked at running back; but after that, things get dicey. For the sake of my argument, when Richard Marshall, Captain Munnerlyn, and Chris Gamble are your top three cornerbacks, you have room to improve. Enough so that it should not be out of the question to take a very large, speedy, and physical cornerback; which is one of those positions that doesn’t require an overly large brain to play. Carolina’s pass defense finished a respectable 11^th in the league, but that’s not the point. The point is, with this much room to improve, you improve with the best available player.

Cam Newton is not that. Blaine Gabbert is not that. 

Carolina was upset when Stanford’s Andrew Luck decided to stay for his junior year. It would be a setback for them to try and draft another quarterback now. You know why? For one, I promise you that Cam Newton’s rookie season is going to be an utter disaster. (The same way I promised you that LaDainian Tomlinson would fail in the NFL. That’s my shout out to what Coleman is thinking) Regardless of what his career becomes, Carolina does not have the talent to cradle him like Baltimore did with Joe Flacco or Atlanta with Matt Ryan. They just can’t do it. Not to mention that he will have more of a curve learning an NFL offense than either Flacco or Ryan.

So then what? You’ve signed Newton to this monster deal, his rookie year is a “failure” and you are picking number one again in 2012. Well, now Andrew Luck is available. What do you do now? Assuming he stays healthy, Luck will be next year’s first pick, without a doubt. Do you see where this is going? Carolina has the chance to become the new Detroit by picking the same position each year because of “talent”. Can Carolina continue this trend? Being big, fast, physical, and tough to tackle doesn’t make you a good NFL quarterback, or player for that matter. Ask Bam Morris or Vince Young. Ask Robert Gallery or Charles Rogers. Heck, ask Randall Williams and his 4.06 40-yard dash. At some point, you have to attempt to develop your quarterback. Very few players can be thrown into a rookie campaign and come out unscathed. Peyton Manning, the aforementioned Aikman, John Elway, Drew Brees (San Diego), and Bernie Kosar are among the notable early year “failures” who went on to have successful careers.

Now take a look at the other side. What happens if you develop a quarterback? How long depends on the player. It took Tom Brady and Michael Vick one season before they hit the field; others like Aaron Rogers (three), Brett Favre (two), and Steve Young (six) took multiple seasons to become legitimate NFL quarterbacks. Two of those guys weren’t even drafted by the teams they became famous with. Therefore, I say that if Carolina drafts another quarterback in 2011 as the first overall pick, they are dooming themselves and any potential progress that can be made by, not just Clausen, but by Matt Moore and Tony Pike as well.

The second item I mentioned, hype, is far more dangerous and costly than impatience and, when coupled together, like in what Carolina might do in this draft, it can become the melting pot for a 0-16 season, or disaster, whichever way you like to think about it. Look at the broad expanse of the draft. Pittsburgh has been excellent over the years finding talent. You know they are sitting there at the end of the first round thinking, “we are going to get the twenty-first best player in this draft because some idiot is gonna take Tim Tebow.” 

You know what? It’s true.

Hype caused Detroit to draft all those receivers; it caused Tennessee to draft the disaster that is Vince Young; San Diego took Ryan Leaf for his strong arm; Chicago bombed with drug addict Rashaam Salaam; the Steelers are having their own problems with fumble happy Rashard “The Anti-Clutch” Mendenhall; Green Bay passed up on Barry Sanders to take Tony Mandarich (heralded as the greatest offensive line prospect of all time); the horrid combination of hype and impatience led Minnesota to commit “The Great Train Robbery” by giving Dallas seven draft picks for Herschel Walker, which Dallas used to draft Emmitt Smith, Darren Woodson, Alvin Harper, and (through trades) Russell Maryland; Oakland took JaMarcus Russell because of his strong arm, size, and athletic ability (sound familiar?). The list goes on and on, but GM’s and owners never really seem to learn from the past.

Right now, at least for the purpose of this article, the hype is Cam Newton (if you want to know who else I think is overrated, just ask. The answers might surprise you, or piss you off). The guy reeks of lying cheating, and just plain trouble. He maintains a holier than thou attitude that scouts continue to complain about; however, analysts, for some reason or another, are lifting him to the position as the second coming of Jesus. Granted, even the ‘tards over at ESPN agree that it will take a couple of years for Cam to progress into a true NFL quarterback, if ever. Therein lies the rub. I do not think that, if drafted by Carolina, Cam will get the time he needs to develop. Andrew Luck will be more NFL ready at year one than Cam at year two, but can Carolina take the risk? So, you see, we have come full circle. My advice to Carolina: draft Patrick Peterson. Draft Nick Fairley. Draft someone who isn’t a quarterback, even a much ballyhooed one. I promise you, it will make you better in the end.    

Dallas 27, Houston 13: Get Back In My Shadow Edition

This article is being posted Tuesday, due to the fact that I will be out of town starting Thursday. Thus, everything gets bumped up a day.

We will begin with an “I told you so”. See what happens when you kick field goals? David Buehler was 2-2 this past week; his long from 49 yards. Wade passed on the opening drive. At first, I was upset at passing on a 47-yard field goal, but after some retrospective, I understand his idea that Dallas was trying to grab some early offensive momentum. For an offense that had struggled coming into the game, not a terrible idea early on. I still would have kicked it.

We will continue with another “I told you so”. In a Facebook war several weeks ago with an unnamed Cowboys detractor from Kansas, I made the argument that Houston going all out against a Dallas team that was going through the motions would have negative effects for Houston when the two teams met in Week 3, while the hater was blabbing about how the offense couldn’t move the ball. Three games into the season, Dallas has the fifth most yards of any team in the NFL and brought forth my preseason prediction that they would dismantle Houston.   

Speaking of Houston, I have not been that impressed with this team. They had all offseason to prepare for Indy and then barely scraped by a Washington team that can’t seem to move the ball. I still expect them to finish around 9-7

Something that I haven’t heard anyone talk about was the “Barber” factor in Dallas gameplan. Marion carried the ball 17 times, while Felix Jones only got 7 carries. This is where I think Dallas needs to be. Nobody is going to confuse Marion Barber with Chris Johnson, but I have always felt that Barber is the best all around running back Dallas has (receiving, rushing, blocking). I was very impressed with his play. Even though he only gained 55 yards, he showed us that bruising brand of football that was so prevalent in 2007 and more importantly, got the yards when they were needed. Felix is not an every down back. He should be getting between 7-11 rushes per game, primarily in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters. I would like to see Tashard get more carries as the 3^rd down back, but I am not sure how possible that is.

Dallas needs a Nickel replacement for Keith Brooking. I love the work that Brooking has done here in Dallas, but the guy needs a break every now and then. How come one of the Williams linebackers can’t fill in for five to eight plays a game? Or even a speedy outside backer like Victor Butler?

Who is the most unknown player on the Cowboys active roster: L.P. LaDouceur, who handles the long-snapping. Now that is the career to have.

The most impressive Cowboys through three weeks: Doug Free. He has yet to give up a sack despite going against Julius Peppers, Brian Orakpo, and Mario Williams

Mike Jenkins might be the best on-ball defender in this league, besides Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson. Jenkins has the uncanny ability to turn and play the ball and not the receiver, something that few cornerbacks do these days. In an age where corners are taught not to find the ball, but to create a barrier between the receiver and the ball, its good to see a corner who still has what I consider to be the proper technique. His speed and hands are also great assets. When was the last time anyone saw him drop an interception?

What a game by the Wide Receivers. Roy Williams made me feel glad about talking him over the first two weeks, as his progression within this system continues to show. Williams has been great on third down for Dallas this year and has yet to drop a single pass. On the flip side, Dez Bryant may have the softest hands of any receiver I have ever seen. He is a lot like Michael Irvin in the way he positions his body in relation to the ball. This allows him to cradle more passes in his arms, something Irvin was quite excellent at, as well as keeping the defender away from the ball. He still has a ways to go, not recognizing the rule difference between the NCAA and NFL in regards to being pushed out of bounds. Let’s also give it up for Miles Austin, who only had two catches. In years past we would be hearing about how is Garrett going to find ways to get Terrell Owens the ball, but not with Austin. His patience and humility are astounding in today’s NFL. Lastly, we had a Sam Hurd sighting. No, not one of the million tackles he seems to make on special teams each game, but rather an excellent slant route on a key third down conversion for the Cowboys on their 3^rd Quarter touchdown drive.

Penalties are still an issue. The only difference Sunday was that Dallas was able to compensate for them with a prolific and balanced attack.

Since the upcoming week is a bye, my article next week will be a list or two of some sort. I will also write a preview for what to look for in the Tennessee game, which I may start making a regular part of this article.

Lamentations For A Once Big XII

Texas A&M quarterback Mark Farris took a three-step drop, quickly read the defense, and fired a strike directly into the hands of Torrance Marshall. If you were born in Texas, you already know the rest of the story. Unfortunately for Farris, Marshall played for the #1 Oklahoma, racing down the sideline for the game winning touchdown. Final score 35-31. It was the most painful experience I have ever encountered as a football fan. I have often looked back on that game as the ultimate What-If scenario. The Big XII South Championship so close to being back in College Station, only to slip away. However, over the past year or two, something else has begun to creep into the picture. Something else has started slipping away. The quality of teams put forth by the Big XII is noticeably dwindling. The powerful run game of Colorado, the Wrecking Crew of Texas A&M, the speed of Kansas State, the All-American defense of Oklahoma, the bruising runners of Texas, and more recently, the quick strike offenses of Missouri and Texas Tech, have all but disappeared. Though there may not be one definitive answer, and though it may be a culmination of a series of events, this article attempts to pinpoint what is killing the Big XII and how eventually, every empire crumbles.

To find out where the Big XII went awry, one does not need to go back past 2000. I would argue that the team Oklahoma fielded in 2000 was the best we saw last decade. But let’s not stray from the course. I will argue that the wide advent of the “spread” offense and its many forms began the death of the Big XII. In its beginnings, the spread was just a fad. It was brought to the Big XII when a transfer from Weber State and Snow Junior College, Josh Huepel, burst onto the scene in 1999. Huepel led an explosive offense and an All-American defense led by Rocky Calmus, Torrence Marshall, Brandon Everage, and Roy Williams, who easily dispatched nearly everyone on their schedule, including a 1-loss Florida State team in the National Championship. For years after, Oklahoma ruled the Big XII South with an iron fist, while Colorado duked it out with Nebraska and Kansas State each year in the North. It was so promising. It was so fun to watch. High scoring offenses became the norm. It wasn’t uncommon, and still isn’t to see teams rack up insane amounts of yards and points. Teams began to play for offense, instead of playing for defense. We should have seen the writing on the wall.

Before that, let’s take a step back. What were some of the most exciting college football games over the past two years? Most people will remember Jordan Shipley’s dramatic kickoff return TD at the Cotton Bowl or Michael Crabtree’s last second touchdown to defeat Texas. It must be conceded that the most exciting games usually come from the Big XII. In the past (emphasis on past), the Big XII has had four of the most explosive offenses in the nation (Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Kansas/Missouri/Texas A&M) and in 2008 had (and the stats back this up) seven of the top 20 quarterbacks in America: Robert Griffith (Baylor), Todd Reesing (Kansas), Chase Daniel (Missouri), Sam Bradford (Oklahoma), Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State), Colt McCoy (Texas) and Graham Harrell (Texas Tech). This seems all hunky dory. Who can beat that? The receivers and running backs are quick, sure handed, and possess incredible skill. The coaching is second to none.

So now let’s examine the defenses (silence with tumbleweed rolling across road). The reason the offenses are sooo great (we’re speaking strictly of 2003 and on) is because the defenses absolutely suck. There is no way around it.  The conference scores more points than any other conference each year by a mile. You know what the effect of this is? Lack of competition. It sometimes feels as if you are watching a glorified flag football game. When will teams realize that’s it’s not enough to put up 60+ points each week? That eventually, you have to play defense. In years past, Texas Tech and their spread attack threw the ball over 55 times per game. Everyone knew Tech was going to pass on every down and still no one in the Big XII could stop it. At Texas, everyone knew that Texas was going to run the option-read and still no one in the Big XII could stop it. You’ve got a team like Kansas had in 2008, a perennially loser who earned bowl bids as often as I get laid, who plugs in a 5’10” quarterback and a couple studs at skill positions and they’ve got an Orange Bowl victory. For the layman, Big 12 teams are victims of their own devices. So now, put yourself in the shoes of my buddy Coleman, adamant fan of the Big 10, who is accustomed to the bruising brand of football mentality and imagine what he might think Michigan gave up 40+ each week? I don’t know if he’d make it through the season.

In 2004, Oklahoma averaged 36.1 PPG, much higher than the 16.7 they averaged only five years before. They were back in the National Championship. They had Adrian Peterson and Jason White. They were seemingly invincible. They hadn’t played a truly great team. It looks good when you can beat a bunch of teams within, what we now realize as a mediocre conference. When all of those mediocre teams play each other, they all look good, right? Oklahoma was slaughtered by USC 55-19 in the National Championship. This coming a year after having their “unstoppable offense” was stymied by a two loss LSU team. The balance had started to shift. The big names were disappearing in Big XII. The next year, the Big XII received a final moment of glory as Vince Young singlehandedly out-dueled the entire USC defense enroute to a stunning victory.

The Big XII has become reliant on high scoring offenses. Texas Tech emerged last decade as an offensive force, due to Mike Leach. Now that Leach has left, Tech struggles to get past the SMU’s of the world. Taylor Potts might be the most ineffective quarterback the state of Texas has seen in the past 15 years. That’s not the only thing that has left. Besides the defensive meltdown that has become the Big XII, it is reasonable to look at the athletes; for they are not what they used to be. In a conference where Jerrod Johnson may very well be the best quarterback, times have changed. Where are the James Brown’s, Major Applewhite’s, and Josh Huepel’s? Colt McCoy was good, but was 0-2 against Stephen McGee, considered one of the tougher field generals in recent memory. Toughness is a theme that has plagued the Big XII in recent years. Nobody is going to confuse Kendall Hunter with Vernand Morency or Tatum Bell. Remember when Colorado was a haven for the backfield? Names like Michael Westbrook, Kordell Stewart, Chris Brown, Hugh Charles, and Bobby Purify conjure up an image of glory that left Boulder a long time ago. Taylor Potts would never have seen the field 5 years ago. Remember the Ricky and Ricky tandem from that late nineties? The glory days of Dante Hall, Ricky Williams, Quentin Griffin, Ahman Green, and Darren Sproles are in the past. Kendall Hunter is supposed to replace that!? Say it ain’t so! I long for the feared defensive backfields of Roy Williams, Michael Huff, and Jon McGraw. Is Blake Gideon the best we have these days?  I miss the days when Ja’mar Toombs and Joel Mackovicka would run people over. Someone, please tell me that Cody Johnson isn’t the best we have anymore. The Teddy Lehman’s and Dat Nguyen’s were gone long before most other positions, replaced by featherweights compared to the former. The question left in this wake is, where have all the athletes gone?

The SEC. While the spread was being thrown around in the Big XII, SEC teams either did not change or developed a much more strategic spread that involved faster, more physical athletes who could play more than one position on the field. Toughness is what the Big XII lacks. Colt McCoy couldn’t last one quarter against Alabama. Texas A&M was run off the field against Arkansas. Oklahoma limped to a 7-5 record, which included a loss to juggernaut BYU. Yet people still put Big XII teams high in rankings. As of this week, The University of Texas is ranked #7; ahead of the likes of South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arkansas. Who would place money on Texas in a game against any of those teams? More recently, they struggled for a half at home against star-studded Wyoming in a 34-7 victory. The same Wyoming team that gave up 45 points in the first half against Boise State before Boise mercifully decided that they didn’t want to reach triple digits, the very next week. How can people ignore this disparity? Few would argue that Texas truly deserved to be in the NC against Alabama. They were nearly beaten by a Nebraska team who, while very physical and tough, might as well have not even tried playing offense. The toughness and physicality weren’t there for Texas. Viewers felt that the 37-21 shellacking, padded by late Texas touchdowns when the game was out of hand, was a predetermined outcome. Utah would have fared better against Florida in 2008 than Oklahoma. Instead, Utah dismantled #4 Alabama in front of a nationwide audience. That being said, there is still hope for the Big XII and it comes in the name of Taylor Martinez. Nebraska has the feel of that 2000 Oklahoma team, who started out ranked 19^th. They are the most solid defensive team in the Big XII. The blackshirts have returned. They will face limited competition this year from the North, and should be able to run the gauntlet to the Big XII Championship. For the sake of the XII, we can only hope they do. Ironically, they ‘re leaving the conference.

What started off as a stunning upset over Nebraska in 1996, turned into Colt McCoy fleeing the National Championship. What was Sirr Parker being collared in the end zone, has turned into the Conference’s star quarterback throwing four interceptions against defensive powerhouse Florida International. What was once the defense of The Superman, now struggles sporadically with inferior opponents. The school that once had three top flight running backs, now is completely irrelevant; burning fires a metaphor for their failures in recent years. What was an offense boasting the nation’s #1 passer on an annual basis, can barely move the football these days. The Big XII does not have much of a defensive pulse left, and I’m afraid, we will soon see, it too, become irrelevant.

The Rebirth of a Nation?

OK, so this is what it has come to. I am officially opening a sports blog, tentatively entitled "Skinography" until a more suitable name can be found. Why? Because I intend to solve world hunger with this article. Not really. This is to appease people who whine incessantly about not being able to read this article on the FF board and to those on the FF board who get tired of me posting articles that could double as the words of Norm Hitzges (god of DFW sports). What will this blog entail? For the moment, it will contain football related news and thoughts. Most of this will be NFL related, but there will be the occasional college thought in the article. So what about the NFL will be included? Good question. Since I, and most of the people reading this will be Cowboys fans, there will be a Wednesday article each week looking back on the Cowboys previous game. My goal in publishing this so late after the game is to avoid any of the brash comments often made by sports fans/journalists immediately following a win or loss. I pride myself in my ability to look at games from a very neutral persepective when it comes to the NFL.

Each Friday will contain an article focusing on the NFL as a whole, with bits of college mixed in. The Friday article is the big article and will contain an introduction, random thoughts/stats/ideas/controversies of the previous week, my power rankings (along with those of Quinn Brunk), and predictions for the upcoming week (also with Quinn Brunk). I am considering a Thursday guest article edition for each week, which could be about anything regarding football. This article might also be included in the Wednesday or Friday edition if I deem worthy. For this current week, there will only be a Wednesday and Friday edition. Feel free to send me any questions you feel like at my email jrobertskinner@gmail.com.

There is a downside to this. I am an unemployed Merchant Mariner. Thus, at any time not known to me, I could be whisked away on a vessel for some reason or another. Either way, I will let you, my faithful followers, know. I hope that you enjoy reading this article as much as I enjoy writing it (and maybe you will learn something in the process). Peace.